20.24.936 N
128.24.614 W
Distance Travelled: 142 NM - 1737 more to Honolulu
As you can tell by the distance we covered in Day 10, we had good wind and snappy conditions. Winds on the aft quarter were in the 20 - 25 knot range with gusts to 28. Seas were running high as we followed a track averaging 275W. We sailed most of it on a double reefed main and jib. Skies were overcast and we could see rain showers in the distance, but no precipitation fell on us. We didn't sleep particularly well as the boat moved around quite a bit on the seas and the winds were not steady - requiring lots of tweaking. We are sticking to our 4 hour watch patterns which seem to be working splendidly.
The wind did not pick up today as predicted. Right now we are coasting along at 6 knots with full jib and reefed main. Very comfortable. The skies are back to blue and the warm sunshine is delightful! And - we saw a bird! We saw a bird! It looked like a small brown boobie, but it was alone and spent an hour or two circling around us, but did not land. What would he be doing out here - at least a thousand nautical miles from any land? Jonathan Livingston Boobie.
I've been thinking a lot about weather prediction today and have a few observations. In our travels we have been told that Canadians have two cultural distinctions: we are all very nice and very weather-obsessed. Okay, then what does that make a Canadian sailor? A nice, psychotically, weather-obsessed person! Maybe. While Canadians have very good reason to take weather into consideration before they leave their homes each day, on the high seas, is it even more important?
You would not believe how many weather models there are out there and each one seems to have its own set of rules. For example, in Canada, when the maritime forecast calls for 30 knot winds, they really mean that 30 knots is likely as much as you will see. However, we have been on the Canadian seas in these type of forecasts and have not seen those winds. In fact, we have had wonderfully comfortable passages in predicted near gales.
As we make our crossing to Hawaii, we download grib files from sailmail that are posted by NOAA. These are arrow-type graphics that are transposed onto your electronic chart for the area you expect to cover in a 6 - 36 hour outlook. NOAA's philosophy is to "average" the wind speeds. So if we see a graphic for 15 knots of wind - we can expect 15 knots to be the mid range of expected wind speed. Our experience has shown us it is often under forecasted. Case in point - yesterday the prediction was for 15 knots - we had steady 25 knots. I guess my points are these: Why do we bother with marine weather when it is so unreliable? Do potential inaccuracies of this degree have a negative psychological effect?
Yesterday, I was not particularly comfortable in the higher winds and sea state. When I saw that the prediction for today was supposed to be for even higher winds, I was quite apprehensive and my anxiety levels were heightened. Yet today, despite the 20 knot (mid-range) prediction, it is actually calmer than yesterday, and all my worry was for naught. So, perhaps ignorance is bliss and I need to come to terms with the fact that I cannot control the weather. I can only conclude that I would be much better off putting my energies into managing the boat in heavy weather conditions, building my confidence and learning to rationalize my fear. I have literally thousands of nautical miles of sailing experience, coastal and off shore, yet I am still not entirely comfortable in this watery element. Any kind of weather forecast is not gospel - only a piece of information to be used to guide your decision making when you go to sea.
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